Paper prices open the "doomsday mode", the book price is not mentioned?

As early as the second half of last year, in response to the rising price of paper prices, some people in the industry analyzed that prices will stabilize after the Spring Festival in 2017; in January 2017, it was predicted that paper prices will stabilize in March; In March, there was another outlook, and the surge in July may stop. However, until today, the small partners in the upstream and downstream of the publishing industry chain have been “rounded up” by rounds of price increases.
"The book was printed, and the carton used for packing was out of stock."
“The next step is to raise the price, and the next step is to stop working.”
"I want to abandon the paper and I am afraid to close the door."
"The speculation of stocks is not as good as 'fried paper', children, mothers give you some paper to make a dowry!"
......
From the recent feedback on the rise in paper prices in the industry, it is obvious that everyone's attitude has turned from surprise to anger, and turned into helpless slogan. If we say that the price of paper is skyrocketing at the end of 2016, the price of paper is soaring in mid-2017. What is the word for this day, can you describe the trend of paper prices?
Looking at the rise in paper prices in the past year, and the peak of where we don’t know where to stop, I am afraid that this round of price increases will be a sight to watch in the trend of paper prices for years or even decades. Unforgettable curve angle. At the end of 2016, the price of paper-based double-adhesive paper was generally 5100-5700 yuan per ton, and the coated paper was about 5500 yuan per ton. As of September 19, 2017, the price of double-adhesive paper was priced at 6872 yuan per ton per week. 6979 yuan per ton, and rose 364 yuan and 200 yuan in a week.
Recently, Chenming Group issued a letter indicating that from September 25th, the coated paper series products will be raised by RMB 400/ton; Asia Pacific Senbo (Guangdong) Paper Co., Ltd. will increase the price of double-adhesive paper and xerographic base paper products by 600 on October 1 Yuan / ton ... This speed, with "ten days a price" to describe has been unable to keep up with the rhythm. However, a recent "Notice of Price Adjustment" by Hangzhou Special Paper Co., Ltd., although not related to the publishing and printing industry, has also become "a letter of price adjustment in history."
Is it a natural disaster or a man-made disaster?
Some publishers ridiculed: "Now we are more familiar with the price of the letter than the development of the bill of lading, can master the structure of this writing theme - thank you for your support and love + we have to raise prices + please be ready The next price adjustment letter." In addition to indicating the increase rate and the new price, most price adjustment letters will indicate the reasons for price increases such as "continuous price increase of raw materials", "restricted logistics" and "response to environmental protection call".
It is understood that with the deepening of special rectification and environmental protection, the prices of various raw materials have risen sharply since the second half of this year. From metal materials such as iron ore, steel, copper and aluminum, to light industrial products such as chemical fiber, rubber, and paper, almost all of them are rising, setting a new high for the year.
On September 7, CCTV Financial Channel paid attention to the paper price increase for the second time in less than half a month. With the theme of “the price of raw paper is rising and the price of paper is rising”, experts are invited to discuss the reasons for the rise in paper prices and the price of waste paper. The logic behind the rise, experts basically agree that this round of rising is due to the recovery of demand and rising costs. In terms of supply, environmental protection continues to be high pressure, waste paper prices soared, labor costs, rising costs of raw and auxiliary materials, and other factors, resulting in insufficient supply. In the total amount of waste paper from papermaking, the amount of imported waste paper accounts for more than half, but whether it is domestic or foreign, it is undergoing a round of strict environmental supervision.
On the other hand, as the stock of raw paper is lower, demand is rising again, so the supply will also increase with the market demand, but the increase has not yet reached the scale of the demand side, which has finally pushed up the price of paper.
At the same time, this round of price increases has also broken the strong long-term cooperative relationship between many paper mills and users. In the past, paper purchases allowed for a certain period of time, but now the paper is to be delivered in one hand, and the paper mill does not even accept the advance payment because “it needs to be settled in real time according to the price of the transaction”. This method of settlement once affected the mode of cooperation between publishers and printing companies. Some insiders said: "The large-scale paper enterprises have firmly grasped the pricing power. The leading enterprises have raised their prices, and the local paper mills have followed closely. The downstream enterprises have no way to fight back."
Who is carnival in the mountains, who is lacking oxygen at the top of the mountain?
On September 14th, "Southern Weekend" published "paper prices skyrocketing, behind the sadness and joy" mentioned: "In the long paper industry chain, the paper industry is in the mountains, the downstream industry is climbing hard on the mountainside, and the terminal papers are like In the newspaper industry, there is a lack of oxygen at the top of the mountain." In the absence of oxygen at the top of the mountain, in addition to the newspaper industry, there is also a publishing industry with a smile on his face and blood in his heart.
Paper companies frantically throw out price increases, and downstream companies naturally have to find targets to resolve pressures and panic. For printing companies, in addition to downtime, they can only raise prices or adjust cooperation models for downstream companies, and publishing organizations naturally resolve them. One of the important goals of stress.
At the end of July, it was reported that a publishing house in Shanghai suffered from the “printing factory shortage”. It was urgent to find a printing factory when the book was published, and finally found a Shandong printing factory to solve the urgent need. At that time, the media explored the reason, which is closely related to the warming of paper books, but now, this is one of the results of the continuous downward shift of the industrial chain in the process of rising paper prices. Even in the near future, even the business jun also experienced a bitter pains of finding a printing factory.
"A single and another price increase letter sent, round and round paper prices skyrocketed, but the book price?" Some publishers complained. The price of paper is rising, but the book price is not. The pressure from the upstream of the publishing industry can not be translated downwards. It can only be digested by itself, but no one tells them how to digest it. There is blood in my heart!"
Also in July of this year, when a university press president accepted an interview with Business Jun, he said that in the face of cost pressures such as rising paper prices, publishers can respond by controlling the number of varieties and improving the quality of publication. In short, it is "saving." paper". But today, it is not only printing paper that affects publishing organizations. During the climax of this wave of price increases in August-September, the price of corrugated paper and cardboard paper rushed into the sky. In August, the price of high-strength corrugated paper rose by 13.28%. Affected all industries involved in the packaging process, carton factories either bluntly increase the price of the scalp, or suspend orders, so that some publishing organizations encountered the dilemma of "there is no book to send out."
Paper prices continue to boom, book prices are "stable"
In recent years, there have been frequent publishers who have questioned China's book pricing and new book limit, and the price war has intensified. “Low to 30% off” and “cabbage price” have often become the gimmicks of book sales. In stark contrast to the arrogant paper price.
According to statistics from Beijing's opening book, in the first half of 2017, the average price of new books in China increased from 52.33 yuan in 2012 to 72.78 yuan, an increase of about 39%. In addition to the decline in 2013, there is a different degree of growth every year, but during the period when paper price growth is crazy, the price increase of new books is relatively slow. The higher book prices are in line with the economic attributes of books, but the value and relative growth rate are still low compared with other countries and other domestic essential goods. If conservative estimates are made, according to the recent increase in paper price of 10% in 10 days, combined with the proportion of printed books accounting for 20%-25% of the total cost of books, the book with a price of 72.78 yuan in June will be printed continuously for three consecutive years. The monthly price is about 35 yuan, and the total book price should be more than 90 yuan (rough estimate).
As it seems, the book price growth rate can't really keep up with the price of paper.
In the long run, all industries, including the publishing industry, have a strong demand for paper in the second half of the year, but the supply side is still shrinking. To make matters worse, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region after the fall, and even the whole country, are about to face a new round of "sickness". Recently, relevant measures have been called to stop all kinds of earthwork operations in the urban area in the next few months. This autumn and winter, the determination and intensity of national environmental protection will not be inferior to last year. Remember what happened at the end of last year? I believe everyone remembers.
The environmental remediation action will catalyze the upgrading of the industry, but for the moment, the direct impact is still the price hike of raw materials and the supply chain supply risk. The printing capacity is in short supply, and the printing is becoming more expensive and more difficult. In addition, the financial network continues to appear "papermaking sector is active and strong" "all major listed paper companies are brilliant" and other news, in early September, there are financial reviews forecast: the future Sun Paper, Shanying Paper, Chenming Paper, Paper enterprises such as Jingxing Paper will continue to prosper and profitability is expected to increase. What does this behind the “continuing boom” mean?
Some publishers said that it would be a small income to pick up and sell the paper price adjustments received.

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